Factores asociados a la percepción de inseguridad en la población de 15 años o más en la República Dominicana
| Issue | Vol. 51 Núm. 1 (2026): Ciencia y Sociedad |
| DOI | |
| Publicado | may. 8, 2026 |
|
Estadísticas |
Instituto de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
Instituto de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
Resumen
En este documento se identifican los factores asociados a la percepción de inseguridad en la población de 15 años o más en la República Dominicana en el año 2022, utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares de Propósitos Múltiples (ENHOGAR-2022) de la Oficina Nacional de Estadística (ONE). Esta investigación sigue un enfoque cuantitativo con alcance descriptivo-correlacional y un diseño no experimental de corte transversal. El modelo econométrico utilizado es la regresión logística ordenada generalizada, la cual se especifica siguiendo los distintos autores de la revisión de la literatura. Los resultados indican que la victimización incrementa significativamente la percepción de inseguridad; además, las mujeres reportan mayores niveles de inseguridad, y se observa un aumento a medida que se incrementan el nivel de ingresos y la edad. Asimismo, existen diferencias territoriales entre zona rural y urbana, así como a nivel de regiones de planificación, especialmente en relación con la región metropolitana, donde se registra un mayor nivel de percepción de inseguridad. De manera global, los resultados evidencian que la percepción de inseguridad es un fenómeno multidimensional que surge de la interacción entre las características de los individuos y los aspectos geográficos, diferenciando tanto la zona rural y la zona urbana como las distintas regiones de planificación de la República Dominicana.
Arango, C., Vallejo-Trujillo, S., & Osorio-Andrade, C. F. (2025). La comunicación del miedo: factores de las noticias sobre delincuencia que influyen en la interacción en las redes sociales. Journalism and Media, 6(3), 132. https://doi.org/10.3390/journalmedia6030132
Brant, R. (1990). Assessing Proportionality in the Proportional Odds Model for Ordinal Logistic Regression. Biometrics, 46(4), 1171-1178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2532457
Bureau of Justice Statistics [BJS]. (2024). National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs#7-0
Chadee, D., Austen, L., & Ditton, J. (2007). The Relationship Between Likelihood and Fear of Criminal Victimization: Evaluating Risk Sensitivity as a Mediating Concept. The British Journal of Criminology, 47(1), 133–153. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azl025
Cocco, E., Arlettaz, R., Caneppele, S., & Daudigny, H. (2025). Measuring Fear of Crime and Avoidance of Victimization in Virtual Reality Settings: A Systematic Review. Deviant Behavior, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2025.2469815
Contreras, H., Candia, C., Rodriguez-Sickert, C., Ferres, L., & Troncoso, R. (2025). Feelings of insecurity as a gender-specific constraint on urban mobility. EPJ Data Science, 14(71), 2-19. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00589-z
Cossman, J. S., & Rader, N. E. (2011). Fear of Crime and Personal Vulnerability: Examining Self-Reported Health. Sociological Spectrum, 31(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/02732173.2011.541339
Covington, J., & Taylor, R. B. (1991). Fear of Crime in Urban Residential Neighborhoods: Implications of between- and within-Neighborhood Sources for Current Models. Sociological Quarterly, 32(2), 231-249. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1991.tb00355.x
Etopio, A. L., & Berthelot, E. R. (2022). Defining and Measuring Fear of Crime: A New Validated Scale Created from Emotion Theory, Qualitative Interviews, and Factor Analyses. Criminology, Criminal Justice, Law and Society, 23(1), 46–67. https://doi.org/10.54555/ccjls.4234.34104
Ferguson, K. M., & Mindel, C. H. (2007). Modeling Fear of Crime in Dallas Neighborhoods: A Test of Social Capital Theory. Crime & Delinquency, 53(2), 322-349. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128705285039
Ferraro, K., & Grange, R. L. (1987). The Measurement of Fear of Crime. Sociological Inquiry, 57(1), 70-97. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-682X.1987.tb01181.x
Fuentealba, P., Rojas, J. S., & Barriga, O. (2016). Diferencias en la percepción de inseguridad a nivel cognitivo y emocional de acuerdo al perfil sociodemográfico y político. Estudio del Gran Concepción, Chile. Política Criminal, 11(22), 620-655. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-33992016000200008
Gainey, R., Alper, M., & Chappell, A. T. (2011). Fear of Crime Revisited: Examining the Direct and Indirect Effects of Disorder, Risk Perception, and Social Capital. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 36(2), 120–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-010-9089-8
Galar, S. (2017). Inseguridad y medios de comunicación. Prácticas periodísticas y conformación de públicos para el delito en Argentina (2010-2015). Delito y Sociedad, 1(41), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.14409/dys.v1i41.6198
Gallup y Center on International Cooperation. (2025). The global safety report: A safer world in unsafe times?
Gélvez, J. D. (2018). ¿Cuáles determinantes se relacionan con la percepción de inseguridad? Un análisis estadístico y espacial para la ciudad de Bogotá, D. C. Revista Criminalidad, 61(1), 69-84.
Hale, C. (1996). Fear of Crime: A Review of the Literature. International Review of Victimology, 4(2), 79–150. https://doi.org/10.1177/026975809600400201
Hart, T. C., Chataway, M., & Mellberg, J. (2022). Measuring fear of crime during the past 25 years: A systematic quantitative literature review. Journal of Criminal Justice, 82, 101988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101988
Henson, B., & Reyns, B. W. (2015). The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself…and Crime: The Current State of the Fear of Crime Literature and Where It Should Go Next. Sociology Compass, 9(2), 91-103. https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12240
Hernández, W., Lucía, D., & Kanashiro, L. (2020). Fear of crime examined through diversity of crime, social inequalities, and social capital: An empirical evaluation in Peru. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 53(4), 515-535. https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865820954466
Hernández-Sampieri, R., y Mendoza, C. (2018). Metodología de la investigación. Las rutas cuantitativa, cualitativa y mixta. McGraw-Hill Education.
Hong, S., Hull, K., Yoon, M., Kim, D., & Kim, Y. (2025). Gender Differences in Fear of Crime: Analyzing the Impact of Various Levels of Factors in South Korea. Victims and Offenders, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2025.2467887
Jasso, C. (2013). Percepción de inseguridad en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 15, 13–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1870-7300(13)72319-6
Johansson, S., & Haandrikman, K. (2023). Gendered fear of crime in the urban context: A comparative multilevel study of women’s and men’s fear of crime. Journal of Urban Affairs, 45(7), 1238–1264. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2021.1923372
Katz, C. M., Webb, V. J., & Armstrong, T. A. (2003). Fear of gangs: A test of alternative theoretical models. Justice Quarterly, 20(1), 95–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820300095471
Killias, M., & Clerici, C. (2000). Different Measures of Vulnerability in their Relation to Different Dimensions of Fear of Crime. The British Journal of Criminology, 40(3), 437–450. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/40.3.437
Kish, L. (1949). A Procedure for Objective Respondent Selection within the Household. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(247), 380–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1949.10483314
Link, N. W., Kelly, J. M., Pitts, J. R., Waltman-Spreha, K., & Taylor, R. B. (2017). Reversing Broken Windows: Evidence of Lagged, Multilevel Impacts of Risk Perceptions on Perceptions of Incivility. Crime & Delinquency, 63(6), 659-682. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128714555606
Min, Y. H., Byun, G., & Ha, M. (2022). Young women’s site-specific fear of crime within urban public spaces in Seoul. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, 21(3), 1149-1160. https://doi.org/10.1080/13467581.2021.1941993
Núñez, J., Tocornal, X., & Henríquez, P. (2012). Determinantes individuales y del entorno residencial en la percepción de seguridad en barrios del Gran Santiago, Chile. Revista INVI, 26(74), 87-120. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-83582012000100003
Oficina Nacional de Estadística [ONE]. (2023). Informe general ENHOGAR 2022. https://www.one.gob.do/publicaciones/2023/informe-general-enhogar-2022/
Peterson, B., & Harrell, F. E. (1990). Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal Response Variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 39(2), 205–217. https://doi.org/10.2307/2347760
Policía Nacional de la República Dominicana. (2026, 22 de marzo). Fuerza de Tarea reporta reducción de casi 35% en tasa de homicidios desde 2023, pese leve alza en 2026. https://www.policianacional.gob.do/fuerza-de-tarea-reporta-reduccion-de-casi-35-en-tasa-de-homicidios-desde-2023-pese-leve-alza-en-2026/
Rader, N. E., Cossman, J. S., & Porter, J. R. (2012). Fear of crime and vulnerability: Using a national sample of Americans to examine two competing paradigms. Journal of Criminal Justice, 40(2), 134-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.02.003
Romer, D., Hall, K., & Aday, S. (2003). Television News and the Cultivation of Fear of Crime. Journal of Communication, 53(1), 88–104. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2003.tb03007.x
Ryder, H., Maltby, J., Rai, L., Jones, P., & Flowe, H. D. (2016). Women's fear of crime and preference for formidable mates: How specific are the underlying psychological mechanisms? Evolution and Human Behavior, 37(4), 293–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2016.01.005
Sampson, R. J. (2009). Analytic approaches to disorder. The British Journal of Sociology, 60, 83-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4446.2008.01219.x
Triana, J. (2021). Percepción de inseguridad, temor al delito y medidas de autoprotección: el caso de Acapulco, Guerrero. Nóesis. Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, 30(60), 166-190. https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2021.2.9
Valera, S., & Guardia, J. (2014). Perceived insecurity and fear of crime in a city with low-crime rates. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 38, 195-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.02.002
Vilalta, C. J. (2013). Determinant Factors in the Perception of Crime-Related Insecurity in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011448
Ward, R. A., LaGory, M., & Sherman, S. R. (1986). Fear of Crime Among the Elderly as Person/Environment Interaction. The Sociological Quarterly, 27(3), 327–341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1986.tb00264.x
Warr, M., & Stafford, M. (1983). Fear of victimization: A look at the proximate causes. Social Forces, 61(4), 1033-1043. https://doi.org/10.2307/2578277
Wilcox, P., & Land, K. C. (1996). Burglary Victimization, Perceptions of Crime Risk, and Routine Activities: A Multilevel Analysis Across Seattle Neighborhoods and Census Tracts. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 33(2), 147-180. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427896033002001
Brant, R. (1990). Assessing Proportionality in the Proportional Odds Model for Ordinal Logistic Regression. Biometrics, 46(4), 1171-1178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2532457
Bureau of Justice Statistics [BJS]. (2024). National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs#7-0
Chadee, D., Austen, L., & Ditton, J. (2007). The Relationship Between Likelihood and Fear of Criminal Victimization: Evaluating Risk Sensitivity as a Mediating Concept. The British Journal of Criminology, 47(1), 133–153. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azl025
Cocco, E., Arlettaz, R., Caneppele, S., & Daudigny, H. (2025). Measuring Fear of Crime and Avoidance of Victimization in Virtual Reality Settings: A Systematic Review. Deviant Behavior, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2025.2469815
Contreras, H., Candia, C., Rodriguez-Sickert, C., Ferres, L., & Troncoso, R. (2025). Feelings of insecurity as a gender-specific constraint on urban mobility. EPJ Data Science, 14(71), 2-19. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00589-z
Cossman, J. S., & Rader, N. E. (2011). Fear of Crime and Personal Vulnerability: Examining Self-Reported Health. Sociological Spectrum, 31(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/02732173.2011.541339
Covington, J., & Taylor, R. B. (1991). Fear of Crime in Urban Residential Neighborhoods: Implications of between- and within-Neighborhood Sources for Current Models. Sociological Quarterly, 32(2), 231-249. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1991.tb00355.x
Etopio, A. L., & Berthelot, E. R. (2022). Defining and Measuring Fear of Crime: A New Validated Scale Created from Emotion Theory, Qualitative Interviews, and Factor Analyses. Criminology, Criminal Justice, Law and Society, 23(1), 46–67. https://doi.org/10.54555/ccjls.4234.34104
Ferguson, K. M., & Mindel, C. H. (2007). Modeling Fear of Crime in Dallas Neighborhoods: A Test of Social Capital Theory. Crime & Delinquency, 53(2), 322-349. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128705285039
Ferraro, K., & Grange, R. L. (1987). The Measurement of Fear of Crime. Sociological Inquiry, 57(1), 70-97. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-682X.1987.tb01181.x
Fuentealba, P., Rojas, J. S., & Barriga, O. (2016). Diferencias en la percepción de inseguridad a nivel cognitivo y emocional de acuerdo al perfil sociodemográfico y político. Estudio del Gran Concepción, Chile. Política Criminal, 11(22), 620-655. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-33992016000200008
Gainey, R., Alper, M., & Chappell, A. T. (2011). Fear of Crime Revisited: Examining the Direct and Indirect Effects of Disorder, Risk Perception, and Social Capital. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 36(2), 120–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-010-9089-8
Galar, S. (2017). Inseguridad y medios de comunicación. Prácticas periodísticas y conformación de públicos para el delito en Argentina (2010-2015). Delito y Sociedad, 1(41), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.14409/dys.v1i41.6198
Gallup y Center on International Cooperation. (2025). The global safety report: A safer world in unsafe times?
Gélvez, J. D. (2018). ¿Cuáles determinantes se relacionan con la percepción de inseguridad? Un análisis estadístico y espacial para la ciudad de Bogotá, D. C. Revista Criminalidad, 61(1), 69-84.
Hale, C. (1996). Fear of Crime: A Review of the Literature. International Review of Victimology, 4(2), 79–150. https://doi.org/10.1177/026975809600400201
Hart, T. C., Chataway, M., & Mellberg, J. (2022). Measuring fear of crime during the past 25 years: A systematic quantitative literature review. Journal of Criminal Justice, 82, 101988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101988
Henson, B., & Reyns, B. W. (2015). The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself…and Crime: The Current State of the Fear of Crime Literature and Where It Should Go Next. Sociology Compass, 9(2), 91-103. https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12240
Hernández, W., Lucía, D., & Kanashiro, L. (2020). Fear of crime examined through diversity of crime, social inequalities, and social capital: An empirical evaluation in Peru. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 53(4), 515-535. https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865820954466
Hernández-Sampieri, R., y Mendoza, C. (2018). Metodología de la investigación. Las rutas cuantitativa, cualitativa y mixta. McGraw-Hill Education.
Hong, S., Hull, K., Yoon, M., Kim, D., & Kim, Y. (2025). Gender Differences in Fear of Crime: Analyzing the Impact of Various Levels of Factors in South Korea. Victims and Offenders, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2025.2467887
Jasso, C. (2013). Percepción de inseguridad en México. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 15, 13–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1870-7300(13)72319-6
Johansson, S., & Haandrikman, K. (2023). Gendered fear of crime in the urban context: A comparative multilevel study of women’s and men’s fear of crime. Journal of Urban Affairs, 45(7), 1238–1264. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2021.1923372
Katz, C. M., Webb, V. J., & Armstrong, T. A. (2003). Fear of gangs: A test of alternative theoretical models. Justice Quarterly, 20(1), 95–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820300095471
Killias, M., & Clerici, C. (2000). Different Measures of Vulnerability in their Relation to Different Dimensions of Fear of Crime. The British Journal of Criminology, 40(3), 437–450. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/40.3.437
Kish, L. (1949). A Procedure for Objective Respondent Selection within the Household. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(247), 380–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1949.10483314
Link, N. W., Kelly, J. M., Pitts, J. R., Waltman-Spreha, K., & Taylor, R. B. (2017). Reversing Broken Windows: Evidence of Lagged, Multilevel Impacts of Risk Perceptions on Perceptions of Incivility. Crime & Delinquency, 63(6), 659-682. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128714555606
Min, Y. H., Byun, G., & Ha, M. (2022). Young women’s site-specific fear of crime within urban public spaces in Seoul. Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, 21(3), 1149-1160. https://doi.org/10.1080/13467581.2021.1941993
Núñez, J., Tocornal, X., & Henríquez, P. (2012). Determinantes individuales y del entorno residencial en la percepción de seguridad en barrios del Gran Santiago, Chile. Revista INVI, 26(74), 87-120. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-83582012000100003
Oficina Nacional de Estadística [ONE]. (2023). Informe general ENHOGAR 2022. https://www.one.gob.do/publicaciones/2023/informe-general-enhogar-2022/
Peterson, B., & Harrell, F. E. (1990). Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal Response Variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 39(2), 205–217. https://doi.org/10.2307/2347760
Policía Nacional de la República Dominicana. (2026, 22 de marzo). Fuerza de Tarea reporta reducción de casi 35% en tasa de homicidios desde 2023, pese leve alza en 2026. https://www.policianacional.gob.do/fuerza-de-tarea-reporta-reduccion-de-casi-35-en-tasa-de-homicidios-desde-2023-pese-leve-alza-en-2026/
Rader, N. E., Cossman, J. S., & Porter, J. R. (2012). Fear of crime and vulnerability: Using a national sample of Americans to examine two competing paradigms. Journal of Criminal Justice, 40(2), 134-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.02.003
Romer, D., Hall, K., & Aday, S. (2003). Television News and the Cultivation of Fear of Crime. Journal of Communication, 53(1), 88–104. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2003.tb03007.x
Ryder, H., Maltby, J., Rai, L., Jones, P., & Flowe, H. D. (2016). Women's fear of crime and preference for formidable mates: How specific are the underlying psychological mechanisms? Evolution and Human Behavior, 37(4), 293–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2016.01.005
Sampson, R. J. (2009). Analytic approaches to disorder. The British Journal of Sociology, 60, 83-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4446.2008.01219.x
Triana, J. (2021). Percepción de inseguridad, temor al delito y medidas de autoprotección: el caso de Acapulco, Guerrero. Nóesis. Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, 30(60), 166-190. https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2021.2.9
Valera, S., & Guardia, J. (2014). Perceived insecurity and fear of crime in a city with low-crime rates. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 38, 195-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.02.002
Vilalta, C. J. (2013). Determinant Factors in the Perception of Crime-Related Insecurity in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011448
Ward, R. A., LaGory, M., & Sherman, S. R. (1986). Fear of Crime Among the Elderly as Person/Environment Interaction. The Sociological Quarterly, 27(3), 327–341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1986.tb00264.x
Warr, M., & Stafford, M. (1983). Fear of victimization: A look at the proximate causes. Social Forces, 61(4), 1033-1043. https://doi.org/10.2307/2578277
Wilcox, P., & Land, K. C. (1996). Burglary Victimization, Perceptions of Crime Risk, and Routine Activities: A Multilevel Analysis Across Seattle Neighborhoods and Census Tracts. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 33(2), 147-180. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427896033002001
Seguridad ciudadana
percepción social
victimización
desigualdad social
análisis estadístico
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© Magdalena Francel Castillo Rodríguez, Juan Bautista Rodríguez Núñez, 2026
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Magdalena Francel Castillo Rodríguez
Instituto de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
Juan Bautista Rodríguez Núñez
Instituto de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas, Universidad Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
Cómo citar
Factores asociados a la percepción de inseguridad en la población de 15 años o más en la República Dominicana. (2026). Ciencia Y Sociedad, 51(1), 153-177. https://doi.org/10.22206/ciso.2026.v51i1.3663

