Evaluacion de impacto de las concesiones de obras públicas en Chile utilizando el método de control sintético
Issue | Vol. 50 Núm. 2 (2025): Ciencia y Sociedad |
DOI | |
Publicado | sep 19, 2025 |
Estadísticas |
Resumen
En este documento se analiza el impacto de la implementación de la Legislación de Concesiones de Obras Públicas (COP) en el crecimiento económico de Chile, utilizando el método de control sintético para construir un contrafactual que represente el desempeño del PIB per cápita en ausencia de la intervención. Basado en datos de PIB per cápita de Chile y siete países latinoamericanos seleccionados para el periodo 1980-1993, se desarrolló un modelo sintético que minimiza las diferencias pre-intervención. Los resultados indican que, tras la implementación de las políticas en 1994, el Producto Interno Bruto per cápita de Chile comenzó a divergir significativamente del contrafactual sintético, particularmente a partir de 2002, sugiriendo un impacto positivo significativo de las políticas de Asociación Público Privada (APPs) en el crecimiento económico del país.
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Aman, J., Abbas, J., Shi, G., Ain, N. U., & Gu, L. (2022). Impact of infrastructure development on economic growth and poverty reduction: A case study of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Research in Globalization, 5, Article 100101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100101
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Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W. (2006). Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models. Econometrica, 74(2), 431–497. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00668.x
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
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Banco Mundial. (2023). Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Database. https://ppi.worldbank.org/
Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839588
Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2004). The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution (Policy Research Working Paper No. 3400). The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3400
Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. (2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 317–372. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.84.4.772
Cavallo, E., Galiani, S., Noy, I., & Pantano, J. (2013). Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5), 1549–1561. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00413
Clarke, R., Leyland, A. H., & Shapley, M. (2022). Evaluating the impact of emergency service restructuring: A comparative study using synthetic control methods. Public Administration Review, 82(1), 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13450
Dehejia, R. H., & Wahba, S. (2002). Propensity score-matching methods for nonexperimental causal studies. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 151–161. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317331982
Ghorbany, S., Yousefi, S., & Noorzai, E. (2022). Evaluating and optimizing performance of public-private partnership projects using copula Bayesian network. Automation in Construction, 134, Article 104070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2022.104070
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1997). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: Evidence from evaluating a job training programme. Review of Economic Studies, 64(4), 605–654. https://doi.org/10.2307/2971733
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1999). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator. Review of Economic Studies, 65(2), 261–294. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00046
Kim, D., Kim, Y., & Lee, S. (2020). Evaluating the impact of air quality regulations on cardiovascular mortality in Seoul using synthetic control methods. Environmental Science & Policy, 112, 363–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.06.018
Kwak, Y. H., Chih, Y. Y., & Ibbs, C. W. (2009). Towards a comprehensive understanding of public-private partnerships for infrastructure development. California Management Review, 51(2), 51–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/41166480
Lechner, M. (2011). The estimation of causal effects by difference-in-difference methods. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 4(3), 165–224. https://doi.org/10.1561/0800000014
Li, J., & Zou, P. (2012). Risk identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and life-cycle methodology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1349–1359. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000563
Liu, J., Love, P., Davis, P., Smith, J., & Regan, M. (2015). Conceptual framework for the performance measurement of public-private partnerships. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(3), 04015003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000210
Love, P., Liu, J., Matthews, J., Sing, C., & Smith, J. (2015). Future proofing PPPs: Life-cycle performance measurement and building information modelling. Automation in Construction, 56, 26–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2015.04.008
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437.
Neto, D. D. C. E. S., Cruz, C., & Sarmento, J. (2017). Understanding the patterns of PPP renegotiations for infrastructure projects in Latin America. Utilities Policy, 48, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1177/1783591718790712
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Petersen, O. H. (2019). Evaluating the costs, quality, and value for money of infrastructure public-private partnerships: A systematic literature review. Public Administration Review, 79(6), 806–818. https://doi.org/10.1111/apce.12243
Rasheed, N., Shahzad, W., Khalfan, M., & Rotimi, J. (2022). Risk identification, assessment, and allocation in PPP projects: A systematic review. Journal of Risk Research, 25(5), 582–602. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12081109
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.41
Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Sukasuka, G. N., Musonda, I., Ramabodu, M., & Zulu, S. (2022). Social dimensions in ex-post evaluation of public-private partnership infrastructure projects: A scoping review. Sustainability, 14(11), Article 6501. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116501
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2009). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2009 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2010). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2010 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2012). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2012 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2014). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2014 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2017). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2017 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2019). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2019 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2022). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2022 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
Yun, S. (2024). From Gap to Growth in Development Finance: Leveraging Public–Private Partnerships to Bridge the Infrastructure Financing Gap. Yale Journal. https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/from-gap-to-growth-in-development-finance
Zhang, X. (2005). Critical success factors for public-private partnerships in infrastructure development. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(1), 3–14. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:1(3)
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 113–132. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455188
Aman, J., Abbas, J., Shi, G., Ain, N. U., & Gu, L. (2022). Impact of infrastructure development on economic growth and poverty reduction: A case study of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Research in Globalization, 5, Article 100101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100101
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton university press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829828
Araújo, L., Piña, A. B. S., Aidar, L. A., Coelho, G., & Carvalho, M. (2019). Recommendations and guidelines for implementing PPP projects: Case of the electricity sector in Brazil. Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 9(3), 262–276. https://doi.org/10.1108/BEPAM-01-2018-0016
Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W. (2006). Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models. Econometrica, 74(2), 431–497. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00668.x
Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
Auriol, E., & Saussier, S. (2025). Rethinking Public–Private Partnerships to Bridge the Infrastructure Gap. VoxEU. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rethinking-public-private-partnerships-bridge-infrastructure-gap
Austin, P. C. (2011). An introduction to propensity score methods for reducing the effects of confounding in observational studies. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 46(3), 399–424. https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2011.568786
Banco Mundial. (1980–2014). Base de datos de indicadores de desarrollo mundial. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Banco Mundial. (2023). Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Database. https://ppi.worldbank.org/
Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839588
Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2004). The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution (Policy Research Working Paper No. 3400). The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3400
Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. (2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 317–372. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.84.4.772
Cavallo, E., Galiani, S., Noy, I., & Pantano, J. (2013). Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5), 1549–1561. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00413
Clarke, R., Leyland, A. H., & Shapley, M. (2022). Evaluating the impact of emergency service restructuring: A comparative study using synthetic control methods. Public Administration Review, 82(1), 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13450
Dehejia, R. H., & Wahba, S. (2002). Propensity score-matching methods for nonexperimental causal studies. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 151–161. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317331982
Ghorbany, S., Yousefi, S., & Noorzai, E. (2022). Evaluating and optimizing performance of public-private partnership projects using copula Bayesian network. Automation in Construction, 134, Article 104070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2022.104070
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1997). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: Evidence from evaluating a job training programme. Review of Economic Studies, 64(4), 605–654. https://doi.org/10.2307/2971733
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1999). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator. Review of Economic Studies, 65(2), 261–294. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00046
Kim, D., Kim, Y., & Lee, S. (2020). Evaluating the impact of air quality regulations on cardiovascular mortality in Seoul using synthetic control methods. Environmental Science & Policy, 112, 363–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.06.018
Kwak, Y. H., Chih, Y. Y., & Ibbs, C. W. (2009). Towards a comprehensive understanding of public-private partnerships for infrastructure development. California Management Review, 51(2), 51–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/41166480
Lechner, M. (2011). The estimation of causal effects by difference-in-difference methods. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 4(3), 165–224. https://doi.org/10.1561/0800000014
Li, J., & Zou, P. (2012). Risk identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and life-cycle methodology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1349–1359. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000563
Liu, J., Love, P., Davis, P., Smith, J., & Regan, M. (2015). Conceptual framework for the performance measurement of public-private partnerships. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(3), 04015003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000210
Love, P., Liu, J., Matthews, J., Sing, C., & Smith, J. (2015). Future proofing PPPs: Life-cycle performance measurement and building information modelling. Automation in Construction, 56, 26–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2015.04.008
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437.
Neto, D. D. C. E. S., Cruz, C., & Sarmento, J. (2017). Understanding the patterns of PPP renegotiations for infrastructure projects in Latin America. Utilities Policy, 48, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1177/1783591718790712
Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE). (2023). OECD Economic Outlook: Volume 2023 Issue 2. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/7a5f73ce-en
Petersen, O. H. (2019). Evaluating the costs, quality, and value for money of infrastructure public-private partnerships: A systematic literature review. Public Administration Review, 79(6), 806–818. https://doi.org/10.1111/apce.12243
Rasheed, N., Shahzad, W., Khalfan, M., & Rotimi, J. (2022). Risk identification, assessment, and allocation in PPP projects: A systematic review. Journal of Risk Research, 25(5), 582–602. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12081109
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/70.1.41
Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Sukasuka, G. N., Musonda, I., Ramabodu, M., & Zulu, S. (2022). Social dimensions in ex-post evaluation of public-private partnership infrastructure projects: A scoping review. Sustainability, 14(11), Article 6501. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116501
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2009). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2009 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2010). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2010 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2012). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2012 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2014). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2014 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2017). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2017 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2019). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2019 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2022). Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2022 Infrascope. https://infrascope.eiu.com/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/
Yun, S. (2024). From Gap to Growth in Development Finance: Leveraging Public–Private Partnerships to Bridge the Infrastructure Financing Gap. Yale Journal. https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/from-gap-to-growth-in-development-finance
Zhang, X. (2005). Critical success factors for public-private partnerships in infrastructure development. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(1), 3–14. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:1(3)
Impacto
concesiones de obras públicas
crecimiento económico
Chile
control sintético
países latinoamericanos
producto interno bruto
asociación público-privada
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© Ciencia y Sociedad, 2025
Afiliaciones
Sergio Alejandro Hinojosa
Piappem Institute
Eduardo Arturo Koffman Jopia
Piappem Institute
Cómo citar
Alejandro Hinojosa, S., & Koffman Jopia, E. A. (2025). Evaluacion de impacto de las concesiones de obras públicas en Chile utilizando el método de control sintético. Ciencia Y Sociedad, 50(2), 141–162. https://doi.org/10.22206/ciso.2025.v50i2.3420