Modelos de predicción del impacto y evolución del COVID-19 en República Dominicana
Issue | Vol. 3 Núm. 1 (2020): Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima |
DOI | |
Publicado | jul 6, 2020 |
Estadísticas |
Resumen
Después de su descubrimiento en China, en diciembre de 2019, el virus SARS-CoV-2 causante de la enfermedad COVID-19, comenzó a propagarse por la mayoría de los países del mundo, provocando una cantidad importante de infectados y muertos, situación que ha generado una gran presión en los sistemas de salud y gobiernos de los diferentes países, que en muchos casos no contaban con los recursos e infraestructuras para enfrentar una pandemia provocada por el virus, como fue el caso de República Dominicana. Usando los datos públicos del avance de la pandemia en la Republica Dominicana, desde el 1 de marzo hasta el 30 de abril, se modeló y pronosticó la posible evolución del COVID-19 en este país, utilizando de tres modelos matemáticos SIR, SEIR-Extendido y log-lineal. Estos modelos permitieron proyectar los diferentes escenarios de contagios y evolución de la enfermedad, además de pronosticar el pico y el descenso de la curva de casos. Según los resultados obtenidos, el país se encontraba en un proceso de crecimiento exponencial de los contagios; el pico de los contagios fue pronosticado ocurriría entre la segunda mitad del mes de mayo y la primera mitad del mes de junio, con un estimado de infectados entre 100,000 y 200,000 individuos. Los resultados obtenidos en este estudio permiten obtener una idea de cuál podría ser el impacto humano y social del COVID-19 en la República Dominicana.
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Agradecimientos
El presente trabajo fue desarrollado con el apoyo del Ministerio de Educación Superior Ciencia y Tecnología de la República Dominicana a través del proyecto: Mapeo de resistomas en los ríos Yaque del Norte y Yaque del Sur y sus implicaciones para la salud humana.
Asimismo, contó con el apoyo de la Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Código de Financiamiento 001.
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Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
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© Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima, 2020
Afiliaciones
Edian F. Franco
Universidad Federal de Para, Belém, Pará, Brasil.
Víctor V. Calderón
Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC), República Dominicana
Rommel T. Ramos
Universidad Federal de Para, Belém, Para, Brasil